Election 2010 – Step One
(The Missing Linc is honored to feature the opinions and “color commentary” of guest blogger Steve Scurlock, Executive Vice President for Government Relations, the Independent Bankers Association of Texas)
Each election has its own unique characteristics, and the primary elections on Tuesday were certainly a great example. Turnout in the Republican primary was roughly twice as high as in past non-presidential election cycles at 11.33% of registered voters, and even surpassed the 10.82% who turned out in the 2008 primaries. This number was likely impacted by crossover voters attempting to impact the Democratic presidential nomination, but the numbers from yesterday are impressive. Democrat turnout was substantially lower than 2008 numbers (22.49% of registered voters) at 5.19%. The crossover vote no doubt had an impact here as well.
Governor Rick Perry and former Houston mayor Bill White cruised to victory – expected for Mr. White, but a significant tribute to the positioning and campaign put together by the Perry team to accomplish this feat. Senator Hutchison, after leading by double digits in virtually all polling until roughly a year ago (as of November, 2008, a poll had her ahead of Perry by 58 – 30), watched her numbers steadily drop as time went by. The big question at this juncture is “will she stay or will she go?” Senator Cornyn laid the table last week with a public comment urging her to stay. Her presence in the U.S. Senate is especially significant with the recent election of Scott Brown thus breaking the filibuster proof Democrat majority. “Out of nowhere” TEA Party candidate Debra Medina pulled 18.54% on a shoestring budget and after several “rookie” press blunders. Should be an interesting several months ahead.
In other statewides, I would be remiss not to mention incumbent Railroad Commissioner Victor Carrillo’s stunning defeat at the hands of David Porter by a 61% to 39% margin. The IBAT PAC does not deal with the Railroad Commission, and thus did not contribute to these individuals, but we have come to know the members of the Commission through various political events. Victor is a good man and a conservative, with the strong support of the party and those who work with him. Mr. Porter may well be a very qualified and likable individual, however the prevailing ”buzz” is that the vast majority of Republican voters had no clue who either of these gentlemen were, most likely no clue as to what the Railroad Commission even does and voted based solely upon last name. This is an issue for the Republicans, and they need to get it together to be competitive into the future. Further, it would appear that if one doesn’t know anything about either candidate, the prudent course of action would be to just not vote in that particular contest. Enough said on that.
In Congressional races, all 32 of our members of Congress are up for re-election, and 14 of those had primary opposition including a number of TEA Party candidates. All were winners, most by very wide margins.
In the Texas Senate, Jose Rodriguez handily won, filling the seat vacated by Senator Eliot Shapleigh in El Paso. Mr. Rodriguez won without a runoff, and will face a Republican challenger in November in this 65% Democratic district. Also of note, incumbent Senator Kip Averitt (who dropped out of the race after the filing deadline due to health issues) in the Waco and northward District 22, still won with 60% of the vote. The county party chairs will have the opportunity to name candidates for the general election in this 62% Republican district. Losing soundly in an election is not an enjoyable experience. Losing big to someone who isn’t actually running must be substantially worse.
All of the 150 members of the Texas House are up for election every two years. A total of five incumbents were defeated – Betty Brown (R – Terrell, HD 4), Al Edwards (D – Houston, HD 146), Tommy Merritt (R – Longview, HD 7), Dora Olivo (D – Richmond, HD 27) and Tara Rios Ybarra (D – South Padre Island, HD 43). Three incumbents are involved in runoffs – Fred Brown (R – Bryan, HD 14), Norma Chavez (D – El Paso, HD 76) and Delwin Jones (R – Lubbock, HD 83). There are runoffs in six other House races, all either open seats or “other party” challengers to sitting incumbents.
Several races of note. Longtime friend and community bank director Chuck Hopson (R – Jacksonville) switched parties last Fall, and was not on the “most popular” list with a number of the Republican establishment in his district and they actively campaigned against him. He soundly defeated two primary opponents (61.22% of the vote) and will go on to meet fellow pharmacist Richard Hackney (D – Bullard) in November in this almost 64% Republican district.
Finally, congratulations to IBAT’s own Curt Nelson, who was elected in a 68.36% landslide as the new Bexar County Republican Chairman!
